The Future of Autonomous Vehicles

Since first launching in Atlanta in the summer of 2025, Waymo has expanded to service five major U.S. cities, demonstrating the success and safety of its autonomous taxi vehicles. Through Uber, users can now order a Waymo, opting for a driverless experience to their destination. Despite initial concerns about the company’s safety, Waymo’s robotaxis have largely proven these fears wrong. Founded in 2009, the company gradually accumulated traffic data and driving patterns, updating its technology until its initial launch in 2018 (Desai, 2025). The company reported 90% fewer serious injuries or worse crashes and 81% fewer injury-causing crashes than the average human, supporting the claim that self-driving vehicles are “safer than human drivers” (Waymo Safety Impact, n.d.). However, Waymo is not the only company to offer autonomous vehicles in place of human workers. Other companies are developing fully automated food delivery services, grocery services, semi-trucks, and retail robots. While this new wave of automation may be the future, questions about the overarching impacts on job loss and vehicle safety remain unanswered.

Economic improvements for accessibility, efficiency, and urban growth are clear. There is an overarching belief that autonomous vehicles will improve accessibility by reducing transportation costs (Marioni, 2025). Without the need to compensate human drivers for taxi, trucking, and delivery services, companies can reduce labor costs and consumer prices. Over time, self-driving vehicles are expected to improve fuel efficiency by optimizing delivery routes and pickups, decreasing fuel consumption by approximately 18% (Zewe, 2022). Research predicts autonomous vehicles could save the average user up to 17% of commuting time (Szimba & Hartmann, 2020). Additionally, companies expect autonomous vehicles to better serve rural areas, improving access for communities underserved by the transportation system. We can expect travel distance for people with disabilities to increase by as much as 14%, while the elderly and drivers with medical conditions may see increases of 3-5%, resulting in enhanced social mobility and improved quality of life for these groups (Harper et al., 2016). These changes will not just support urban mobility and economic growth, but break physical barriers and disparities that restrict communities to remote locations with fewer resources. Therefore, autonomous vehicles have the potential to dismantle physical barriers for resource-scarce communities where traditional policy solutions have failed. 

Economic growth will also come from the expanded use of automated vehicles in the taxi and limousine industries. San Francisco, the second city to launch Waymo, has experienced a 7% increase in the number of taxi and limousine firms and a 14% increase in total pay one year after its initial release in the city in 2023(“The Economics of Self-Driving Taxis,” 2025). Research estimates that consumers will soon prefer autonomous vehicles over human-driven taxi services due to their safety and comfort. Improvements in the technology of autonomous driving could also expand the private vehicle market. Despite setbacks in Tesla’s implementation of a “self-driving mode,” improvements in automated driving could generate an estimated $42 billion increase in automotive manufacturing revenue (Clements & Kockelman, 2017). Beyond the automotive industry, researchers also anticipate growth in the freight transportation, land development, electronics, digital media, and oil and gas industries. This widespread growth, paired with an increase in urban mobility and reduction in collisions, contributes to an estimated $936 billion dollar value increase in economic gains annually from autonomous vehicles once fully adopted into society  (Clements & Kockelman, 2017). 

However, the potential for economic growth is accompanied by concerns related to the labor market. The growing adoption of self-driving cars could displace millions of workers in the United States across approximately 14 industries (UPCEA, n.d., Clements & Kockelman, 2017). Human-driven taxi services and truck driving will experience huge hits to jobs as robotaxi and trucking companies expand, and these negative effects are expected to ripple across the insurance, hospitality, and food service industries. As fewer people drive, especially long-distance truck drivers, research estimates that drive-thrus, motels, and rest stops will see reduced profits (UPCEA, n.d.). Despite projected economic gains, job creation may not keep pace with job displacement. The UPCEA (n.d.) estimates a loss of 4.5 million jobs in the U.S. economy and an $168 billion loss in annual wages due to automation. Importantly, many of the jobs vulnerable to replacement by autonomous vehicles are held by marginalized communities, specifically individuals without a college degree, immigrants, and the formerly incarcerated. Therefore, expanding autonomous vehicles could reinforce socioeconomic barriers by eliminating roles that offer accessible entry into the workforce (Marioni, 2025). As autonomous technology continues to develop, policymakers and industry leaders must carefully consider which communities will benefit from the industry’s expansion and which will be negatively affected in the process.

Beyond economic concerns, regulatory challenges accompany the expansion of autonomous vehicle services. Concern that “zombie cars” (self-driving cars that circle the city waiting for their passengers) will increase traffic and carbon emissions is high. Although robotaxis contribute fewer carbon emissions than the average human driver, on-demand autonomous vehicle fleets are highly dependent on rider demand, and, during periods of low ridership, increased circling could raise emissions  (Wallace, 2017). Regulations have not kept pace with the rapid speed of innovation. Additional concerns, such as slower driving speeds, may also affect consumer behavior. (Wallace, 2017). As automotive and artificial intelligence become increasingly integrated, new safety and regulatory guidelines will be required. Policymakers must address the societal and environmental impacts of introducing autonomous vehicles into large U.S. cities as the technology continues to expand rapidly. 

Although the autonomous vehicle industry is in its early stages, its growth is accelerating. Amazon has entered the robotaxi industry with its subsidiary, Zoox, and plans on expanding automation to delivery system services (Zoox, n.d.). Additionally, Waymo announced plans to debut its services in Washington D.C., Nashville, Miami, Dallas, and Denver (Desai, 2025). Momentum is high, but as we increase our usage of autonomous robots, it is vital to remember the humans they replaced. For millions, this new technology brings financial instability and job loss. Questions surrounding the liability of automated vehicle companies in car accidents remain unresolved. Policymakers must address these challenges in the future and create a universal framework that protects public well-being and human safety (Wallace, 2017). Addressing and mitigating the potential harms of the growing industry is the only way to fully realize the potential benefits of self-driving vehicles.

Edited by Michelle Fang

References

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