Inverted Job Curve: Can Blue-collar Jobs be the Future of the US?
Historically, getting a white-collar job symbolized success: a stable nine-to-five schedule, a clean work environment, and the opportunity to climb the social ladder. Conversely, blue-collar jobs were often portrayed as rigorous and low-paying, thus making those jobs less desirable. However, recent economic disruptions and cultural shifts have begun changing how these jobs are viewed, with blue-collar positions gaining appeal.
Demand for blue-collar jobs is reversing in trend
In recent decades, automation and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed the job landscape, but not always in favor of white-collar roles. Routine office jobs that involve basic data handling are increasingly at risk of automation, which makes them less stable than they were previously. According to a report by McKinsey, current generation AI and other technologies can potentially automate work activities that absorb up to 70% of employees’ time today. These shifts will mean that up to 12 million workers in Europe and the United States will need to change jobs. (Manyika et al., 2024). Meanwhile, many blue-collar jobs require skills that are much more difficult to automate, particularly those that involve physical dexterity and technical expertise.
On the contrary, as veterans in these fields continue to retire, demand for blue-collar jobs has risen, resulting in increased wages. For instance, wages for skilled trade workers have caused the average weekly earnings for construction and manufacturing roles to be 23.5% and 20.1%, respectively, above pre-COVID-19 levels (Greenberg et al., 2024). Electricians, wind turbine installers, and solar panel installers are earning wages competitive compared to many traditional office-based jobs, with the added benefit of having tangible skills that are highly sought after. Job security in these sectors has also increased, driven by a shortage of skilled labor, which makes such trades more indispensable than ever (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024).
Blue-collar jobs are becoming increasingly cost effective
More in depth, the burdensome cost of education has become a deciding factor. Pursuing a traditional white-collar career path often involves taking on substantial student loans. As a result, the high costs of university education and uncertainty in return have made skilled trades and other vocational pathways more attractive to those seeking quicker financial independence and ways to avoid debt (UPCEA, 2024).
At the same time, earnings for young men without a college degree have swiftly reversed from their original downward trajectory. According to a recent report by the Pew Research Center, earnings for blue-collar jobs have had modest increases over the past 10 years with median earnings for high school graduates rising to $45,000 in 2023, up from $39,300 in 2014 (Fry et al., 2024).
Companies are implementing policies such as "skills-first" hiring practices to adapt to the change in workforce dynamics. According to research from Harvard Business School, companies like Delta Air Lines are adopting a skills-first approach, prioritizing abilities over degrees, which has democratized access to jobs for those without higher education (Layne, 2024). These trends have contributed to a renewed interest in blue-collar jobs that offer stable income and do not require a four-year college degree.
Boosted by these transformations in the job market, cultural perceptions of blue-collar jobs are changing. Many younger workers are increasingly drawn to jobs that offer fulfillment, personal freedom, and the ability to see visible results from their labor. According to the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC), 60% of blue-collar workers and 70% of white-collar workers agree that having a blue-collar job is respected more now than it was 10 years ago. (AACC, 2022)
Future of jobs
Together, these societal shifts revolving around blue-collar jobs highlight an interesting transformation of what it means to have a worthwhile job. More and more young adults are pursuing works that offer stability, hands-on engagement, and a healthy work-life balance. The idea of a corporate job is no longer the universal ideal as more people appreciate the value of skilled manual labor and its contributions to society.
Edited by Justin Hahm
References
Greenberg, E., Schaefer, E., & Weddle, B. (2024). Tradespeople wanted: the need for critical trade skills in the us. Mckinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/tradespeople-wanted-the-need-for-critical-trade-skills-in-the-us.
Manyika, J., Lund, S., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Woetzel, L., Batra, P., Ko, R., & Sanghvi, S. (2024). Jobs lost, jobs gained: what the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024). Employment Projections 2023-2033. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf
University Professional and Continuing Education Association(UPCEA). (2021). today’s disengaged learner is tomorrow’s adult learner. https://upcea.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Todays-Disengaged-Learner-is-Tomorrows-Adult-Learner_UPCEA-and-StraighterLine_November-2021-1.pdf
Fry, R., Braga, D., & Parker, K. (2024). Job market and economic trends for young adults by gender and education. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/05/23/labor-market-and-economic-trends-for-young-adults/.
DataPoints: positive views of blue-collar jobs. (2022). American Association of Community College (AACC). https://www.aacc.nche.edu/2022/04/13/datapoints-positive-views-of-blue-collar-jobs/.
Layne, R. (2024). 10 trends to watch in 2024. Harvard Business School. https://www.library.hbs.edu/working-knowledge/10-trends-to-watch-in-2024.
Investopedia / Phynart Studio. (n.d.). Blue-Collar vs. White-Collar Jobs: What's the Difference? [Photograph]. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/wealth-management/120215/blue-collar-vs-white-collar-different-social-classes.asp
