History Repeats Itself: Consequences of a War in Kashmir
The region of Kashmir has been the center of disagreement between the neighboring countries of India and Pakistan for decades. During this time, it has endured wars, regular terrorist attacks, riots, and innumerable tragedies. While the region has always been a cause of dispute, the tensions have remained at its peak since 1999, and the countries might almost be at the brink of a war, according to some.
The region of Kashmir is a very important location, and is desired by both India and Pakistan, and even China. Its high, mountainous terrain provides a natural border with neighbours, as well as an extremely efficient fortification system, as it would be nearly impossible to mount an attack through the Himalayan mountain range primarily located in this region. As a result, whoever possesses control of the mountain range will have the ability to deter and invasions, and potentially launch one of their own.
While most people agree that a war would be detrimental to both countries, it’s a multifaceted issue that has various different socio-political implications depending on the outlook of the person. It is likely that the economic implications will not be positive.
In 2017, the region of Kashmir in India received over 14 million tourists. The industry itself contributes to around 10% of Kashmir’s economy, amounting to roughly $2.5 billion, and employs over 100,000 people. The initiation of a war would therefore result in a complete destruction of the tourist industry within the state, but furthermore, may potentially also damage the tourist potential of the nearby states of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, known for its “hill stations”, or extremely popular mountain top resort towns.
For Pakistan, other than the strategic advantage mentioned previously, the region is also the country’s primary source of freshwater, as the major river Indus, along with its five main tributaries, that flow through the nation originate there. Pakistan’s economy is largely focused on the primary sector, with agriculture contributing to 24% of the country’s GDP, and for half of the employed labor force, according to its government. An impending war would spell disaster for the Pakistani economy, as their food supplies could very easily be crippled if India decides to restrict the flow of water into the country by constructing dams in Kashmir. So far, this has been prevented due to international mediation in the form of the Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960, which divided the control of the aforementioned rivers between the countries. This treaty, however, has been a cause of complaint for both sides, and with the Trump Administration not keen on intervening, the issue could escalate into a war over water. Pakistan is already an extremely water-stressed nation, and is predicted to face a massive shortage by 2025. Thus, this could lead to dire consequences.
Currently, the Indian government spends approximately $45 billion on its military, about 1.5% of its $2.9 trillion GDP. Pakistan has a defense-spending of roughly $8 billion, which is approximately 2.9% of its $277 billion economy. Additionally, recent U.S. foreign policies have reduced monetary assistance to the Pakistani military by $2 billion. These numbers are low, and for good reason; both countries have sectors that are in dire need of attention, including education and healthcare. Improving the quality of these fundamental services has been the goal of both governments thus far, but that may change soon. The newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, rose to power primarily with the backing of the Pakistani military, which holds immense power in the country. Due to this, it is entirely possible that Khan may seek to upgrade the old, inefficient equipment and weaponry that is plaguing the Pakistani army. This would require a major reallocation of the fiscal budget, and potentially increase the fiscal deficit with more borrowing of money. This will, of course, galvanize the Indian government to redirect a larger portion of its own budget to national defence, creating a vicious cycle with extreme amounts of military spending that neither country can afford.
Other than the obvious military costs, warfare has a massive impact on the price of everyday supplies. Food prices will skyrocket, and considering that large portions of the population in both countries live in extreme poverty, it could prove to be a very costly venture. Both countries also rely on oil imports, and without having their own reserves, will have to resort to spending extraneous amounts to satisfy the additional demand for oil during wartime.
However, perhaps the biggest geopolitical concern is that a potential war will bog down the economic potential of India, and prevent it from being the South Asian powerhouse that economists and politicians across the world hope for it to be. This would create a massive power vacuum, allowing China to extend its influence unquestionably over the continent, something that the United States is desperately striving to prevent. In recent years, the U.S. government has worked with both the Indian and Pakistani governments to bring some stability to the extremely volatile political climate in Afghanistan. Upsetting this delicate balance, and considering China’s tendency to forcefully seize power and govern authoritatively, it is in best interests of everyone to ensure that a balance of power is maintained in the region. With its general elections coming up in less than two months, the Indian government is under pressure to make responsible decisions. As the world’s largest democracy, however, India must show that it can stand strong, and take action for the benefit of its people, as well as of those around them.
Edited by Julie Park
Sources:
https://www.ibef.org/states/jammu-kashmir.aspx
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics
https://www.financialexpress.com/budget/indias-defence-budget-in-a-10-trillion-economy/1477189/
